aes22 International Evaluation Conference

Ghislain Arbour (Centre for Program Evaluation, University of Melbourne)

A program theory is often understood as an explanation about how a program produces a chain of outcomes that ultimately leads to the intended outcome. Unfortunately, by assuming the occurrence of an intended outcome in its very definition, this perspective skews the development of a program theory towards the search of an explanation that fits the intent of the program rather than one that reveals its most probable consequences.

This popular view on program theory can have serious consequences on program development and evaluation. Overall, it risks turning a program theory into a tool of justification rather than a tool of investigation that can challenge the causal assumptions behind a program and inform better policy alternatives.
This presentation aims at offering a different perspective on program theory, one that can unlock its full reflective potential for evaluation and program planning. To do so it carefully establishes the essential characteristics of a program theory, around the notion of causal explanation. From there it logically derives a few lessons and challenges common current conceptions in evaluation practice.

Presentation Plan
The presentation will start with a short introduction to get to know the audience and its needs in respect to program theory (5 min.), followed by the main lecture (35 min.), and will end with a group discussion around a short practical application (10 min.).